While home price gains in Toronto and Vancouver are also expected to slow, they are anticipated to remain stronger than national prices despite recent local government efforts to rein in the hot markets.
Canada’s housing market has been robust in the years since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, supporting economic growth but also spurring record levels of household debt compared to income.
With tougher new rules on mortgage lending to take effect at the beginning of next year and the Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rates again, economists are watching to see how indebted consumers will cope.
Home prices are expected to grow by just 1.9 percent next year after a gain of 8.5 percent in 2017, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. Home price inflation is expected to pick up slightly from there with a 2.6 percent increase in 2019.
Analysts said the impending mortgage rule changes imposed by Canada’s banking regulator are likely to have the biggest impact on the most expensive markets.
“The rule change will be significant, but largely concentrated in higher-priced markets of Toronto and Vancouver,” said Michael Dolega, senior economist at TD Bank.
Still, the impact in British Columbia may be diluted by the large number of credit unions in the province that are not subject to the rule changes, Dolega said.
Toronto price gains are forecast to cool to 2.0 percent in 2018 and edge up to 3.0 percent the following year.
After touching an annual rate of over 30 percent earlier this year, home prices in Toronto have come off the boil since the Ontario government announced a number of measures in April to cool demand, including a foreign buyers tax.
But Vancouver, which implemented its own tax on foreign buyers last year, is seen notching price gains of 6.0 percent next year before cooling to 4.6 percent in 2019.
The rebound in Vancouver prices since the tax was introduced suggests further measures are needed in British Columbia, said Sebastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank.